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The West wants to "decouple" China, a new round of market economic storm to come? Raw materials jumped 57% year on year!
Recently, the news that the West will decouple and break the chain with China appears, a new round of market economy storm is coming again! What about the chemical market?Since the sale of ZTE was banned in 2018, China's high-tech industry has been "crowded out" by technology powers. In September, the Biden administration announced in October that it would expand restrictions on U.S. companies exporting artificial intelligence chips and chip-making equipment to China, and that U.S. personnel would not be allowed to participate in any chip work on the mainland. In response, the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry said that what the US has done is nothing but scientific and technological hegemony. The voice is sonorous and powerful, but there are also great challenges behind. China is the world's largest chip importing country. "Decoupling" will reduce the market supply from Europe and the United States and suppress Chinese semiconductor enterprises, which will lead to global overcapacity and alleviate inflation in the United States, but disrupt the global semiconductor industrial chain.
Decoupling and chain breaking, how about the trend of raw materials?The former has Russia and Ukraine, the latter China and the United States. Great power game, raw material trend gradually fog. At the beginning of 2022, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war led to a shortage of chip raw materials, and the chip soared by 150 times! The recent "decoupling and chain break" has caused global semiconductor stocks to plunge, covering semiconductor investment, raw materials, equipment and chip processing and manufacturing companies, and affecting domestic companies such as Huawei and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, among which TSMC recorded the biggest decline since 1994, falling by 8%.
Price rises and falls, the impact of semiconductor industry chain analysis is as follows:In terms of raw materials: Russia and Ukraine account for more than half of the world's semiconductor and chip raw materials. Among them, Russia has palladium, a rare metal used to make semiconductors, and 42 percent of the world's palladium comes from Russia. Ukraine supplies 70 percent neon, 40 percent krypton, and 30 percent xenon to chip manufacturing, respectively, and Ukraine supplies more than 90 percent of the U.S. total semiconductors and neon. Mining, transportation and trading of raw materials have been blocked since the war, SEMI said in an email, citing potential supply disruptions for raw materials such as C4F6, palladium, helium, neon and scandium.
Technology: At present, the United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries are in the forefront of the global chip and semiconductor industry. The United States has an absolute advantage in technology, Nvidia, AMD, Intel and other giants are from the United States, and currently have a technology monopoly. While Japan in silicon wafers, semiconductor wafer, synthesis mask, photoresist, pharmaceutical, target materials, protective coating, lead frame, ceramic plate, plastic board, TAB, COF package, 14 of welding line, packaging materials and other important material occupies 50% or more shares, Japan's semiconductor industry long-term maintain absolute advantage on a global scale. South Korea has Samsung, the world's first 3-nanometer product, with an 18% share of the market.
Although there is TSMC in China, it is difficult to support the development of the technology in the short term due to the limited number of factors.In recent years, domestic policies have vigorously promoted the development of semiconductor, chip, high-end chemical raw materials and other sectors, and the voice of "domestic instead of imported" is growing. Although there is still a big gap between some technologies and raw materials and those of European and American countries, related industries in China have begun to rise gradually.
Will the escalation of import restrictions affect the chemical industry?Technology, raw materials and equipment in high-tech industries are all subject to import restrictions, decoupling of cooperation and disruption of supply chains, and the market is bound to be in chaos. In the current domestic chemical market, a large number of high-end chemicals and key basic chemical materials are still imported. Will the "decoupling and chain breaking" advocated by Western countries affect the chemical industry?
Europe is the world's second largest chemical production base, accounting for about 18% of global chemical sales. Among them, MDI accounts for 27% of global production capacity, TDI accounts for 25% of global production capacity, European propylene oxide accounts for 25% of global production capacity, vitamin A accounts for 49% of global production capacity, vitamin E accounts for 33% of global production capacity, methionine accounts for 30% of global production capacity, soda ash accounts for 18% of global production capacity.
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2024-09-12